What was once pioneering in sustainability now risks becoming an afterthought. In the current turbulence of tariffs, stock markets and affordable rental space, business priorities are driven by the urgent – not the essential. Yet now is exactly the right moment to future-proof real estate portfolios and integrate sustainability into risk management.
«Drill, baby, drill!» was the message from President Donald Trump in his inauguration speech at the beginning of the year. On his first day in office, he declared a national energy emergency and introduced a directive to ease regulations for the oil and gas sector, aiming to accelerate drilling and pipeline development.
Just a month later, the European Commission announced plans to simplify a series of EU regulations to foster a “more business-friendly environment”. This included reporting on sustainable finance, sustainability due diligence, the EU taxonomy, the carbon border adjustment mechanism and European investment programmes. The goal: reduce red tape and enable better access to funding for a sustainable transformation.
In other words: the world's largest economy is doubling down on fossil fuels – global warming and climate crisis be damned. Meanwhile, Europe appears to be taking a step back from its climate commitments by loosening the Green Deal.
So we ask ourselves: where is the echo of Greta Thunberg’s outraged cry that shook the world in 2019?
What becomes the norm grows quiet
It’s not just Greta who’s fallen quiet. Sustainability has drifted into the background. Once freed from its stereotypical image of Birkenstocks and hemp, it gained recognition as a strategic differentiator and evolved into a core business topic via ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) criteria. Teams were built, metrics reported, certificates requested, and investments made. Today, sustainability is a mark of good corporate citizenship. On the Gartner Hype Cycle, it might well have reached the "Plateau of Productivity".
But routine works silently – and draws little attention. What becomes normal fades from the spotlight. Amid the political noise of tariffs, disinformation, war and humanitarian crises, climate neutrality is slipping into the second tier. That’s worrying. Disasters like the recent rock slide in Blatten remind us – forcefully and tragically – that the initial panic was not misplaced. Sustainability must be understood as a core aspect of risk management.
Eventually is now
One thing is clear: the clock is ticking. Net-zero by 2050 may seem like a distant target, but for real estate organisations, there’s little wiggle room. Given property life cycles, most existing buildings will only undergo one major refurbishment or renovation over the next 25 years.
Yet geopolitical instability, regulatory uncertainty and economic volatility make reliable decarbonisation pathways difficult to define. We often see property owners and portfolio managers delay decisions or choose the cheapest option. But linear thinking and short-termism today will limit structural options tomorrow. Climate strategies, embodied carbon, life-cycle costs and climate risks must be integral to decision-making if we want a climate-neutral future that also makes financial sense – and the sooner, the better
Three Future Scenarios for 2050
The first step is to recognise that the future is not destiny – it’s something we can shape. Before action planning begins, strategic foresight is required. We see three plausible scenarios that could define the climate narrative over the next 25 years and significantly impact businesses:
1. Green by Consequence
Climate change is broadly ignored, and the 1.5°C target is dismissed as unrealistic. Policies remain toothless and economic pressure to change is low. The focus is on symptoms rather than causes; sustainability is reduced to damage control. The consequences are dramatic, especially in dense urban areas: water scarcity, extreme weather, and food shortages. These lead to physical damage to property and infrastructure – and heavy costs for businesses and society.
Motto: Ignore the risk, and it will crush you
2. Green by Force
Net-zero becomes non-negotiable – no matter the cost. Regulations tighten dramatically, subsidies are generous, fossil fuels become unaffordable, and CO₂ emissions are heavily taxed. The pressure to transform is immense. Businesses that fail to adapt lose market access, financing, or public support. The path is painful, but clear.
Motto: If you don’t have a plan, one will be imposed on you.
3. Green by Design
Net-zero remains the goal but is approached pragmatically – free of ideological baggage. Sustainability is pursued, but investors avoid overinvestment where risk and return can’t be clearly assessed. Market incentives, tech innovation, and data-driven decisions come to the fore. Regulation is targeted and aligned with European standards. ESG becomes an embedded element of resilient corporate, real estate and portfolio strategies.
Motto: Translate ambition into structure to unlock flexibility.
Each of these scenarios calls for tailored measures – aligned with location, use type, and portfolio strategy. And they all require a shift from quarterly thinking to lifecycle planning.
This isn’t about activism. It’s about forward-looking risk management: robust scenarios, wild-card awareness, and clear action plans. Those who plan wisely not only buy time in a crisis – they gain peace of mind. Because whether you withstand the storm is decided not when it hits – but in the calm before.
Risk mindset over checkbox thinking
We observe that sustainability is increasingly approached through a risk-based lens. While CSR highlights corporate responsibility, another mindset is gaining traction: one grounded in data and control. The focus is on systematically gathering building data, energy use and emissions – and creating risk profiles for each asset. The aim? Identify ESG risks early and make them part of the portfolio’s strategic steering.
In this light, sustainability moves beyond reporting and certificates to become a key decision factor. Location becomes critical. As climate change progresses, questions of resilience take centre stage. Buildings must not only be efficient, but also robust – against heat, wind, flooding or social stress.
To quantify these risks, buildings must be assessed systematically across energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, physical climate risk and social resilience. Based on this, each of the three future scenarios can be matched with an action profile – tailored by asset use, location, and strategic priorities.
We have a choice: treat sustainability as risk and manage it now – or face the consequences later. As Greta said at Davos: “I want you to act as if our house is on fire. Because it is.”
About the authors
Dr Johannes Gantner is a Partner at pom+Consulting and leads the Business Unit Sustainability. His team supports companies in early identification of climate-related risks and strengthening resilience through targeted strategies.
Isabel Gehrer leads the Future Lab at pom+Consulting, helping organisations navigate complex futures with robust foresight, compelling visioning and systematic trend and tech monitoring.